Rivers separates San Diego in subpar AFC West

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

LAST SEASON: 13-3 - first in AFC West - lost to Jets in divisional round

AT THE HELM: Norv Turner (fourth season, 32-16 with San Diego)

NEW WEAPONS: RB Ryan Matthews (R), CB Donald Strickland

SENT PACKING: RB LaDainian Tomlinson, CB Antonio Cromartie, DT Jamal Williams

THE VIBE

San Diego smoothly made the transition into the Phillip Rivers Era during the 2009 campaign. The seventh-year signal caller excelled throughout an MVP-caliber season, finishing third in the NFL in passer rating, while guiding the Bolts to 13 regular season wins. Now that franchise legend LaDainian Tomlinson is 3,000 miles removed from SoCal, Rivers can unquestionably call San Diego “his team”. Despite occasional ugly flashes of immaturity, Rivers is among the league’s elite and his fiery attitude resonates in the locker room.

The Chargers are heavy favorites to win a fifth consecutive AFC West championship, but there are questions abound. Offensive tackle Marcus McNiell and wide receiver Vincent Jackson - each crucial pieces in Norv Turner’s offense - have yet to rejoin the team amid contract disputes. All signs point to lengthy holdouts for both Pro Bowl players, meaning San Diego’s depth will be tested early and often.

Jackson is an overrated asset in San Diego. Although he was among league leaders in yards per reception last season, Jackson’s 68 catches ranked just thirtieth among his peers. Tight end Antonio Gates – who recently received the contract extension that Jackson desperately desires – is still the central target in the Chargers' passing game. Combine Gates’ freakish athletic attributes with the abilities of emerging wide receivers Malcom Floyd (6-foot-5) and Legedu Naanee (6-foot-3) and you have the makings of a physical group of pass catchers at Rivers’ disposal.

Though San Diego’s offensive attack now revolves around its air arsenal, the ground game must remain reliable if the team is to return to the postseason. The Chargers traded up in the first round of April’s draft to snag Fresno State running back Ryan Matthews, who will immediately be thrown into the fire as the team’s feature ball carrier. The diminutive Darren Sproles will continue to supply instant offense from his usual role as third-down back and kick returner, but Matthews will receive the bulk of the workload and has an excellent shot at earning Offensive Rookie of the Year recognition.

Defensively, the Chargers lack an identity and disgruntled star linebacker Shawne Merriman - likely one season shy of leaving town - seems to be mentally checked out already. Despite shipping off corner back Antonio Cromartie during the winter, San Diego will hold its own against the pass. Keep an eye on Eric Weddle. The versatile fourth-year safety out of Utah is an absolute gamer in the secondary and continues to improve his tackling each season.

THE VERDICT

10-6 - first in AFC West - lose to Baltimore in divisional round

The Chargers are fun to watch and bring a ton of talent to the table, but when it comes down to “dog fight” games – where brutal weather is a factor and trench battles reign supreme – the Chargers lack the necessary nasty streak. Expect San Diego to repeat recent history – shaky start, strong finish, early playoff knockout.




KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

LAST SEASON: 4-12 - fourth in AFC West

AT THE HELM: Todd Haley (second season, 4-12 with Kansas City)

NEW WEAPONS: RB Thomas Jones, FS Eric Berry (R), G Ryan Lilja

SENT PACKING: OT Wade Smith, WR Bobby Wade

THE VIBE

Year Two of the Scott Pioli/Todd Haley experiment will give us an indication of where this organization is headed. Heavily invested in an unproven quarterback and several highly-paid defensive youngsters, Kansas City is a bit of an enigma. Since the Chiefs' last postseason appearance in 2006, KC owns a miserable 10-38 record, discarding franchise icons Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson during the downslide.

However, the mounting losses did allow the Chiefs to stockpile young playmakers. The most recent three drafts netted Kansas City a ton of defensive talent. Defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey (fifth overall, 2008), corner back Brandon Flowers (second round, 2008), defensive end Tyson Jackson (third overall, 2009) and safety Eric Berry (fifth overall, 2010) are the cornerstones of a seemingly endless rebuilding project on defense. Think back to when the Chiefs were flourishing under Dick Vermiel and even then it's hard to picture Kansas City as anything close to an intimidating defensive team. Dorsey and Jackson, who were college teammates at LSU, must provide pass rusher Tamba Hali with help by barreling through offensive lines more frequently. Flowers is a blossoming (pun intended) cover corner. The lack of any consistent pressure on the passer from the Chiefs' front seven forced the Virginia Tech grad to improve quickly in order to stick with receivers allotted an extra second or two to separate.

Matt Cassel enters his third season since emerging from Tom Brady's shadow in New England. Pioli arrived in Kansas City from the Patriots front office last offseason and saw to it that Cassel came along with him. The 28-year-old quarterback's numbers dipped in his first season with the Chiefs. A 16-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio leaves a lot to be desired following his breakout 2008 season in Foxboro (21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions). But the weapons around Cassel in '09 were certainly a far cry from Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Number one wideout Dwayne Bowe accumulated career lows in catches (47), yards (589) and touchdowns (4). His resurgance, along with continued contributions from Chris Chambers - who tallied 608 yards receiving after joining the Chiefs midseason - is necesarry if Cassel is to live up to the "franchise QB" billing bestowed upon him when he was acquired.

Jamaal Charles is much more than a run-of-the-mill back and could make a leap into the league's top ten ball carriers in 2010. His field vision developed tremendously over the duration of his second season in KC and he uses a quick first step to attack open space when he spots it. Charles - a third-round pick out of Texas in 2008 - burst onto the scene late last year. Despite not receiving more than six carries in a game prior to November, Charles made the most of his opportunity - racking up 1,120 yards and eight touchdowns. A dominant 259-yard effort in the Chiefs' week 17 win at Denver punctuated Charles' rapid improvement.

Pioli paired Charles with new backfield battery mate Thomas Jones this offseason. The 32-year-old Jones is fresh off a stellar three-year run in East Rutherford, where he led the Jets in rushing since 2007. No player was more respected in New York's locker room than Jones, who wore down toward the end of a strong '09 season and lost his job to upstart Shonn Greene. He won't be expeced to carry the Chiefs, but 15 touches per game is a reasonable expectation for a grind-it-out back who scored 29 touchdowns over the past two seasons and surpassed the 1,000 yard mark in each of the previous five years. Don't sleep on Kansas City's new two-pronged rushing attack.

THE VERDICT

7-9 - second in AFC West

The Kansas City team playing this November will resemble a playoff contender. The September version, however, is a work in progress. The Chiefs take on the harsh task of rebuilding the right way - patiently developing homegrown talent while incorporating few veteran pieces. Chambers continues to make San Diego look foolish for letting him go last season and helps Cassel improve on a ho-hum '09 campaign. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis enjoys his return to behind-the-scenes action and proves once again he is a talented gameplanner. Kansas City - much like Oakland - is a year away from finally challenging the Chargers for AFC West supremecy.

DENVER BRONCOS

LAST SEASON: 8-8 – 2nd in AFC West

AT THE HELM: Josh McDaniels (second season, 8-8 with Denver)

NEW WEAPONS: QB Brady Quinn, QB Tim Tebow (R), WR Demaryius Thomas (R), DT Jamal Williams, DE Jarvis Green

SENT PACKING: WR Brandon Marshall, TE Tony Scheffler

THE VIBE

When Broncos owner Pat Bowlen handed his team over to 33-year-old head coach Josh McDaniels last winter, it’s hard to imagine he could’ve anticipated the franchise-altering events that swiftly followed the move. McDaniels arrived in Mile High City hailed as an X's and O’s prodigy of sorts. He called the shots on offense during New England’s overwhelming 2007 onslaught and is widely credited with grooming former Patriots backup QB Matt Cassel (now the starter in Kansas City).

Upon taking over for two-time Super Bowl champion Mike Shanahan, McDaniels inherited one of the NFL’s up-and-coming quarterbacks in Jay Cutler and a young, stud receiver in Brandon Marshall. The duo flourished in limited time together and looked to be on pace with some of league’s great perennial combos (Manning-Wayne, Palmer-Ochocinco, etc.). Following a rocky beginning to his relationship with the new coach, Cutler found himself jettisoned to Chicago without ever taking a snap for McDaniels. Marshall managed to stick around for one season… almost.

The egocentric game-changer tallied 100 receptions for a third straight year, but that didn’t keep McDaniels from benching his star wideout for the last game of the season (with playoff implications at stake!). This spring, Marshall took his tired act to South Beach, leaving Kyle Orton as the premier player on Denver’s revamped offense. The immence promise of Cutler-to-Marshall is past. The sobering reality of Orton-to-Gaffney is present. This is the legacy of the Broncos' young coach - for now.

McDaniels’ ability to delve deep into his expansive playbook hinges on the anticipated emergence of a former SEC superstar – and I’m not speaking about the Golden Boy of Gainesville. Denver used the twelfth pick in the ’09 draft to tab Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno as the first piece of the team’s post-Cutler franchise makeover. Moreno must improve on a solid 2009 rookie season and develop into a star. Otherwise, the Broncos sputter and McDaniels’ reputation as a guru rapidly erodes.

Orton – acquired from Chicago in the Cutler deal – is clearly a solid NFL quarterback . Unfortunately for the Broncos, "solid" QBs don't often start for great teams. Playoff runs require more than satisfactory play from the game’s most pivotal position. Orton enjoyed a career year in 2010, tossing for over 3,800 yards and 21 touchdowns. His surprising play helped Denver sprint out to a 6-0 start last season, before he and the Broncos fell back to Earth while losing eight of ten contests down the stretch.

Elvis Dumervil is the best player on Denver’s roster. Unfortunately, McDaniels will likely be without his star defensive end in 2010. Just one month after signing a five-year contract extension – which included $43 million guaranteed – Dumervil tore his pectoral muscle in training camp's early stages. The injury takes a large bite out of the potential of a talented defense. The Broncos will count on young edge rusher Robert Ayers and former Patriots defensive end Jarvis Green to keep pressure on the opposing passer and off an aging secondary – headlined by Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins.

THE VERDICT

6-10 – tied for third in AFC West

Denver stumbles out of the gate with a brutal opening portion of games (the Broncos face the Colts, Ravens, Titans, Jets and 49ers before October ends) and the team never quite finds its rhythm. Orton is effective but doesn't have the ability to win games on his own. Moreno is largely inconsistent, while no one comes close to filling Marshall’s role as downfield dominator. And what of Tim Tebow, you ask? The Gator Savior runs for more touchdowns (4) than he throws (2) during a roller coaster rookie year. He also leads the leaugue in one category - jersey sales.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

LAST SEASON: 5-11 - third in AFC West

AT THE HELM: Tom Cable (third season, 9-19 with Oakland)

NEW WEAPONS: QB Jason Campbell, NT John Henderson, OLB Kamerion Wimbley, LB Rolando McClain

SENT PACKING: QB JaMarcus "Captain Skittles" Russell, RB Justin Fargas, DE Greg Ellis

THE VIBE

JaMarcus Russell is gone. Those four words should be all you need to read in order to realize Oakland is on the upswing. Raiders' owner/mad scientist Al Davis finally pulled the plug on the first overall selection of the 2007 draft and swung a draft day trade for former Redskins' starter Jason Campbell. Releasing Russell - a monumental bust and $34 million failed investment - was the necessary step for a franchise that has not simply lost its prestige, but devolved into the Los Angeles Clippers of the NFL. Armed with an improved offense and a promising defense, it appears Oakland may potentially flirt with a .500 record for the first time in nearly a decade.

Is Campbell a Pro Bowl-caliber QB? Well, not if you base his abilities on what we saw of him in D.C. But remember, this is a guy who has endured constant changes at offensive coordinator since his days at Auburn (though Oakland may be the worst place to be when searching for stability in a coaching staff). Campbell's NFL resume mirrors that of his new franchise. While the Auburn alumnus has been unable to hook up with a long-term coach, the Raiders' nightmare merry-go-round of passers since Rich Gannon's retirement is simply embarassing (Oakland QBs have a combined 47 touchdowns and 73 interceptions since 2006).

Perhaps, at long last, Oakland and Campbell have found their match and can forge a lengthy, successful relationship. But they have each been burned before and this new marriage is far from a guaranteed home run. Campbell owns a respectable 82.3 career passer rating and completes over 60% of his pass attempts, but he's yet to play in any game of great consequence and hasn't distinguished himself as anything more than an average NFL starter. It's more likely Campbell becomes the latest member of a frustrating game of musical chairs behind center in Oakland (Kerry Collins, Aaron Brooks, Daunte Culpepper, Russell) than the next Jim Plunkett.

THE VERDICT

6-10, tied for third in AFC West

I've noticed a lot of "experts" making Oakland a trendy playoff pick in the AFC lately. Am I missing something? The Silver and Black struggle to create turnovers and ranked thirtieth against the run last season - though the addition of Alabama linebacker Rolando McClain helps tremendously. McClain hits like a train and is a favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Oakland's fortunes are tied tightly to his progression.

Zach Miller - the team's best pass catcher - continues his ascension up the NFL tight end food chain. Michael Bush sprints past Darren McFadden early in Autumn and establishes himself as one of the AFC's top fourth quarter running backs. Jason Campbell fails to play himself into a starter's money contract and forces Oakland to bring in competition at the QB position yet again next offseason.

NEXT UP -> A LOOK AT THE REVAMPED NFC WEST