Monday, August 30, 2010

Without Warner, NFC West is Wide Open


NFC WEST BREAKDOWN


DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY
(SINCE 2002 REALIGNMENT)

Seahawks: 4 (2004-2007)
Cardinals: 2 (2008-2009)
Rams: 1 (2003)
49ers: 1 (2002)



SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS



LAST SEASON: 8-8 - second in NFC West

AT THE HELM: Mike Singletary (third season, 13-12 with San Francisco)

NEW WEAPONS: OT Anthony Davis (R), G Mike Iupati (R), RB Brian Westbrook, SS Taylor Mays (R), WR Ted Ginn Jr., QB David Carr

SENT PACKING: QB Shaun Hill, RB Glen Coffee


THE VIBE


Stop me if you've heard this before: the 49ers are on the verge of digging their way out of franchise purgatory and playing deep into January. Put the 49ers in the "are we there yet?" category. Much like the Houston Texans, San Francisco has been tantalizing its fan base for years in August and September, without turning fantasy into fruition at season's end. Finally though, it appears the 49ers are primed to put the finishing touches on a massive organizational overhaul.


Nearly eight years removed from its last postseason visit, San Francisco must finally receive a breakout year from quarterback Alex Smith. The former Utah star became the face of the 49ers rebuilding project when the team made him the first overall pick of the 2005 Draft. Smith enters the final season of a six-year contract and is looking to solidify himself as San Francisco's quarterback of today and tomorrow. Shoulder injuries and coaching changes - five offensive coordinators in five years - take much of the blame for Smith's shortcomings. His career totals of 37 touchdowns and 43 interceptions don't exactly scream 'franchise quarterback'.


But now Smith is healthy, directing a suddenly stable offensive gameplan for the first time in his career, and playing in San Fran's most talented offense since Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens ran routes together. It's officially do or die time for Smith. If he can improve on 2009 - his best statistical season as a pro - a shiny, new contract extension and long-term job security is likely on the way. However, should Smith falter as the leader of a hard-nosed, playoff-ready roster, his days as an NFL starter are in jeopardy and he becomes David Carr: Version Two (Carr happens to be Smith's backup).


It remains to be seen if using the first overall selection on Smith was a mistake (Aaron Rodgers slid to Green Bay at No. 24) but the 49ers' personnel maneuvers have been money lately. Running back Frank Gore - a 2005 third-round selection - is the only 49er ever to exceed 1,000 yards on the ground in four consecutive seasons. San Francisco's already potent ground game is supersized with the additions of first-round offensive linemen Anthony Davis (The Pride of Piscataway) and Mike Iupati. Versatile running back Brian Westbrook hopes to rebound from a foul farewell in Philadelphia by adding some juice to the depth chart behind Gore.


Tight end Vernon Davis (sixth overall draft choice, 2006) is no longer just an athletic freak with dreadlocks and a sulk. Davis' demeanor has changed during two and a half seasons under head coach Mike Singletary and he is now a team captain. The former Terrapin vaulted himself into the NFL's best tight end discussion in 2009, when he led his position with 13 touchdowns. Davis' blend of speed, stength and newfound tenacity make him one of the league's true matchup nightmares. Second-year wide receiver Michael Crabtree could really light a fuse in the 49ers' offense. Crabtree played like a legitimate No. 1 wideout as a rookie, despite missing the first five games of '09 amid contract squabbling. Though reports of attitude issues are unsettling - word is, teammates feel he didn't bring nearly enough effort into his first NFL training camp this summer - it's hard to imagine Crabtree failing to reach the 1,000 yard receiving mark in year two.




Despite an offense loaded with young talent, San Francisco's best player resides in the center of its defense. Patrick Willis is the best inside linebacker in the NFL... and it's not even close. His sideline-to-sideline quickness and knack for forcing turnovers are reminiscent of Ray Lewis circa 2001. Led by Willis and a reliable core of veterans (safety Michael Lewis, corner back Nate Clements, linebacker Takeo Spikes and defensive end Justin Smith have been through the fire plenty of times in the past) expect San Francisco's defense to finish among the league's top ten.




THE VERDICT


10-6 - first in NFC West - lose to Green Bay in wild card round

The 49ers take advantage of an extremely friendly second half schedule and gel into a viable NFC contender. Though a Super Bowl trip isn't in the works this season, it may be creeping over the horizon. Alex Smith displays the smarts and precision that made him an elite prospect, emerging as a fringe Pro Bowl candidate and earning a new contract in the process. Rookie running back Anthony Dixon outproduces Westbrook, while making a case to displace Gore as starter in 2011. Davis again leads the team in touchdowns, but Crabtree steals headlines with a ton of highlight reel plays and nearly as many boneheaded comments. Patrick Willis becomes a household name and wins his first NFL Defensive MVP award.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS




LAST SEASON: 5-11 - third in NFC West


AT THE HELM: Pete Carroll (first season with Seattle)


NEW WEAPONS: RB Leon Washington, OT Russell Okung (R), G Ben Hamilton, FS Earl Thomas (R), WR Mike Williams, DE Chris Clemons, QB Charlie Whitehurst


SENT PACKING: WR Nate Burleson, QB/WR Seneca Wallace, DE Patrick Kerney, OT Walter Jones

THE VIBE



Despite all the hooplah surrounding Pete Carroll's return to the NFL sidelines, there are many reasons to think the Seahawks won't sniff the playoffs in 2010. A pourous defense, unsettled offense and the growing pains of a new regime provide Seattle with a number of obstacles. I can, however, imagine one particular scenario playing out that could lead to the Seahawks stealing the division. If banged-up three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Hasselbeck can pull off a renaissance season - a la Chad Pennington with Miami in 2008 - it would give Carroll's tenure an early batch of momentum.



A revitalized Hasselbeck would provide Seattle with an above-average option at quarterback for the next couple of years, while allowing Carroll some time to find and prepare his QB of the future. You don't need to look too far in the rear-view mirror in order to remember a time when Hasselbeck and Seattle owned the NFC West. The Seahawks claimed four consecutive division crowns between 2004 and 2007. Hasselbeck was at the top of his game during that span, tossing 92 touchdowns and breaking just about every franchise passing record in the process. The past two seasons have been a different story. Hasselbeck missed 11 games between 2008 and 2009, while throwing fewer touchdowns (22) than interceptions (27).


Seattle's offensive skill players are a mixed bag of sorts. Like their quarterback, each have something to prove. Outside of consistent tight end John Carlson - he's reached the endzone 12 times in two seasons as a pro - there is little certainty. Deion Branch has been nothing more than an average receiver since the Seahawks lured him away from New England. The Super Bowl XXXIX MVP is slated to join a seemingly 'back from the dead' Mike Williams in Seattle's starting lineup. TJ Houshmanzadeh caught 79 balls last year in his first season in the northwest, but apparently he doesn't fit into Carroll's plans. Houshmanzadeh, who was signed to a hefty free agent contract last season, was stunningly released this week.
Williams - a star on Carroll's national championship team at USC - is suddenly a main target in Seattle's passing game. Though he hasn't found the end zone since 2006 and owns just 44 career receptions since Detroit made him the tenth overall pick in the 2005 Draft, Carroll apparently wholeheartedly believes in the young man he recruited out of high school nearly a decade ago. This speaks volumes considering Williams has accumulated more lost fumbles (3) than touchdowns (2) in five seasons. Williams' final shot at redemption in professional football is a compelling storyline worth keeping an eye on this season.


Seattle's offensive backfield remains influx, as it has since Shaun Alexander's abrupt decline. The team features two runners - Justin Forsett and Leon Washington - who will compete to eventually take over as feature back. Julius Jones got the first crack at the job, but he ultimately didn't survive roster cuts. Washington is the more explosive of the two, but he can't be counted on to tote the rock twenty times per game.


If Carroll's first season in Seattle goes up in flames, a pedestrian defensive unit is likely to be the main culprit. The Seahwaks might have the most QB-friendly defense in the NFL, and things will only get tougher with the retirement of sack artist Patrick Kerney. An embattled defensive line will rely on a promising group of linebackers to bail them out. Middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu - another former USC standout - is a proven commodity and brings fire to an uninspired group. Aaron Curry - last year's first round pick (fourth overall) out of Wake Forest - must grow as an edge-rusher and bring a new dynamic to the Seahawks' vanilla defense. Rookie safety Earl Thomas is already the best member of a beleaugered secondary that will be tested often.


THE VERDICT

7-9 - tied for second in NFC West

Carroll brings a refreshing sense of swagger to the City That Starbuck's Built. Seattle never has shaken its reputation as "soft" - a label that stuck with the team even throughout a Super Bowl run in 2005 - and reversing that trend should be priority number one on Carroll's to-do list. The coach will try his damndest to fire up the 'Hawks, but the pieces simply aren't in place. Seattle's defense still can't generate a consistent pass rush and is again susceptible to giving up big plays. Mike Williams comes back from the brink of obscurity and surpasses his career totals in touchdowns and receptions in 2010 alone.
If Hasselbeck is great, the Seahawks challenge the 49ers. My guess is he isn't quite at that level anymore and it becomes apparent by the end of the season that Carroll needs to land a premier QB prospect (potential 2011 No. 1 pick Jake Locker is right in his backyard at the University of Washington).






ARIZONA CARDINALS


LAST SEASON: 10-6 - first in NFC West - lost to New Orleans in divisional round


AT THE HELM: Ken Whisenhunt (fourth season, 27-21 with Arizona)


NEW WEAPONS: QB Derek Anderson, G Alan Faneca, LB Joey Porter, K Jay Feeley, FS Kerry Rhodes


SENT PACKING: QB Kurt Warner, WR Anquan Boldin, LB Karlos Dansby, FS Antrel Rolle, K Neil Rackers


THE VIBE

No team changed as drastically over the offseason as the Cardinals. Kurt Warner retired after directing Arizona to the first back-to-back division titles in franchise history. Enter Matt Leinart... Exit Matt Leinart... Suddenly, head coach Ken Whisenhunt is relying on Derek Anderson - a guy who couldn't hold onto the starting quarterback job on a dreadful Cleveland team last season - to fill the mighty big shoes left behind by Warner. The Cardinals offseason in a nut shell: a ton of roster movement that won't make the squad any better.


The swift end to the Leinart Era was nearly as awkward as the '04 Heisman winner's infamous beer bong photos. After losing his grip on the starting job for the second time in three seasons, there was no way Leinart could have remained a Cardinal without crushing team chemistry. Sandwiched between quarterbacks Vince Young and Jay Cutler in the first round of the 2006 Draft, Leinart seemed to have the charisma and pedigree to become the face of an NFL franchise. He was practically football royalty while leading the star-powered USC dynasty and landed with a franchise that featured two exceptional talents at receiver (Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). Arizona brought in Warner to serve as temporary mentor for Leinart. The rest is history.


Fitzgerald remains a fixture in the Cardinals' offense and is arguably the best pass catcher in the world. However, without a reliable presence at quarterback in 2010, Fitz may have to do a whole lot more downfield run blocking than ever before. Whisenhunt wants to focus on transforming the Cardinals into a more physical team and it starts with the running game. Second-year back Beanie Wells and veteran Tim Hightower must step up with Warner gone and help Arizona forge a new offensive identity. Steve Breaston takes over at receiver opposite Fitgerald, following the trade of Boldin to the Baltimore Ravens.



Linebacker Joey Porter arrives from Miami to replace the departed Karlos Dansby, who signed with the Dolphins. While he had a tremdous first season in South Beach (17.5 sacks in 2008), Porter's inconsistent play and big mouth tend to rub teammates and coaches the wrong way. Dansby, on the other hand, was a leader by example with the Cards and eclipsed the 100-tackle mark each of the past two seasons. Throw in the fact that Dansby is five years younger than the 33-year-old Porter and it's hard to view Arizona's linebacker swap as an upgrade.

Offseason acquisition Kerry Rhodes - who spent the last four seasons as the Jets' starting free safety - teams up with Adrian Wilson to form a stellar safety net at back end of the Cardinals' secondary. A veteran-laden defense spearheaded by mammoth tackle Darnell Dockett is suddenly the strong suit of a team recently recognized for its relentless offensive attack. Whisenhunt - who coached Pittsburgh's offense prior to his hiring in the desert - is trying to emulate the Steelers' style. The great deal of roster tinkering is aimed at transitioning the Cards from a shoot-out style squad to a grind-it-out, flash-free team. Following an offseason of so many questionable decisions, I still wonder why Arizona didn't make the one move that would've kept the team atop the NFC West: a trade for Donovan McNabb.


THE VERDICT

7-9 - tied for second in NFC West

Derek Anderson is his usual erattic self (he's yet to complete more than 56% of his passes in a season), which severly cripples Fitzgerald's exceptional ability to pick up yards after the catch. Beanie Wells rumbles and shines through as a bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming offense. Porter leads Arizona in sacks and the defense is stingy enough to keep the Cardinals within reach of a third consecutive playoff berth for much of the season. Despite having the easiest schedule (on paper) in the league, Arizona is too inconsistent and provides another example tbat quarterback is king in today's NFL.




ST. LOUIS RAMS


LAST SEASON: 1-15 - fourth in NFC West


AT THE HELM: Steve Spagnuolo (second season, 1-15 with St. Louis)


NEW WEAPONS: QB Sam Bradford (R), LB Na'il Diggs, DT Fred Robbins, OT Rodger Saffold (R)


SENT PACKING: QB Marc Bulger, TE Randy McMichael, DT Adam Carriker, DE Leonard Little


THE VIBE


I'm not sure if Sam Bradford is yet familiar with the ceiling structure of the Edward Jones Dome, but he will become well acquainted with the roof's architectural nuances this Fall. Bradford can plan on spending a lot of time staring upward from the turf while buried beneath 300-pound defensive lineman throughout his rookie campaign. The unfortunate reality of having the honor - and $50 million guaranteed - that comes with being the first player to come off the board on draft day, is the immediate burden of carrying a franchise fresh off rock bottom.



St. Louis' glory days of the early 2000s - when the Greatest Show on Turf ruled the lNFC - are long gone. The modern day Rams own an atrocious 6-42 record since 2007 and are best characterized as the Greatest Joke on Turf. No franchise is climbing a steeper road right now than St. Louis (yes, that includes Detroit). Terrible draft day decisions and a startling lack of quality talent have made the Rams irrelevant for the better part of a half decade.

While the stars of St. Louis' Super Bowl teams entered the twilight of their careers, the Rams attempted to stock up on young talent that would eventually replace the aging mainstays. Chalk that effort up as a failure. St. Louis drafted ten players in the first round between 2000 and 2007. Only one of those highly paid investments remains a Ram today - running back Steven Jackson. The 24th overall pick of the '04 draft earned two Pro Bowl appearances, while racking up over 8,000 total yards during the past five seasons. Jackson is the Barry Sanders of his generation. His highlight reel and statistics have the makings of Hall-of-Fame material, yet the he's not nearly as popular as peers Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson. St. Louis receives no national television exposure, so neither does Jackson. The 27-year-old running back will do whatever he can to help Bradford get the Rams back on prime time.

Spagnuolo's gameplan will lean heavily on Jackson again this season. An efficient running game can be used to protect Bradford while he gradually learns how to play at the professional level. Jackson is the only sure thing in the Rams' offensive huddle. Receivers Laurent Robinson and Danny Amendola - who combined for 56 receptions and 493 yards in '09 - would be on the roster bubble of many NFL squads. They'll start for St. Louis to begin the season. The offensive line could be great down the road, but time and patience is necessary. Rookie Rodger Saffold and 2009 first-round pick Jason Smith serve as bookends at tackle, while top flight center Jason Brown protects the inside of Bradford's pocket.

Any defensive improvement will depend a young unit's ability to take its lumps and learn from past mistakes. Chris Long took down the quarterback five times in 2009. That won't cut it for a defensive end taken second overall in the draft two years ago. Long most evolve into a dominant pass rusher or he is destined to become another debilitating first-round disappointment in St. Louis. James Laurinaitis looks like a long-term solution at middle linebacker. Last season, Laurinaitis tallied 120 tackles and two interceptions as a rookie out of Ohio State. His progression is crucial for a defense with glaring holes across the board.

THE VERDICT

3-13 - fourth place in NFC West

Bradford has guts and he needs them this year. His statistics aren't pretty - neither is his win-loss record - but Bradford makes strides on and off the field. Before he worries about winning games in the NFL, the rookie quarterback must win over his locker room and earn the trust of a lost franchise. He'll show enough fight early in the season to answer any questions about toughness or commitment.

The Rams are more competitive and nearly pull off a few late season upsets, but this may be the least talented roster in the NFL and another miniscule win total is in the cards. Better days are ahead in St. Louis with Bradford behind center, I just hope Jackson still has something left in the tank when the wins finally begin to pile up.

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